비트코인 가격이 올해 최고치 1만3785달러에 비해 30% 이상 하락한 상태지만 분석가들의 장기 전망은 여전히 강세이며, 강세장 후 30-40%의 후퇴는 비트코인에게 일반적인 현상으로 여겨지고 있다.
또한 최근 2년 동안 비트코인 시장이 크게 발전했음에 불구하고 여전히 비트코인의 대부분은 소위 ‘고래’라고 하는 소수의 대규모 투자자들이 보유하고 있는 것으로 알려졌다.
암호화폐 트레이더 조시 레이저는 “고래들과 월스트리트는 심리 게임을 좋아한다. 여기에는 시장을 극도로 피곤하게 만들어 거래를 어렵게 하는 것도 포함된다”고 밝힌 바 있다.
After a sharp fall on July 28 and a further correction to $9,250 the following day, the top coin has since recovered and stabilized around the $9,590 mark — up 0.5% on the day. On the week, the coin’s losses are at around 7%, with monthly losses pushing 20%. In light of Bitcoin’s sharp downward turn since its 2019 high of $13,739, Cointelegraph yesterday published an analysis piece covering experts’ still-bullish outlook for the asset in the medium term. Among factors under consideration are the coin’s technicals, current mining trends and Bitcoin’s 2020 halving, when mining rewards will be reduced by half.
DonAlt presented three key support areas as bitcoin deepens its plunge. The first area, which falls between $8,200 and $8,700, has served a strong resistance this year on multiple occasions. The second area, the pivot of which is around the $6,700 level, also has a history of experiencing high selling pressure. Nevertheless, on two occasions last year, the $6,700 level as support sent price more than 79 and 51 percent higher, respectively.
Bitcoin is currently trading at the top of that range but analysts are expecting a dip into the $8,000s as the technicals are not looking favorable. Weekly losses from the same time last Monday are at 9.5% and BTC has dumped 20% since this time last month. As it stands the correction from high to yesterday’s low is at 34%.
Fundamentally things are not looking too bad with a weakened dollar and an interest rate reduction expected in the US this week. These are usually bullish for bitcoin but the current correction could have further to fall before it bottoms out.
Bitcoin dipped to $9,111 over the weekend, forming a bearish candle, despite a quick bounce back above $9,600.
For the sixth day in a row, prices continue to trend below the 50-period moving average – an indication the bears firmly control the short-term trend.
The daily and weekly RSI and the “awesome” oscillator are beginning to flash bearish warning signs.
Bitcoin would see a reversal of the short-term bearish outlook only if prices close above $9,880 (July 25-27 resistance) on Bitstamp.
$9,500 could be a near term double bottom
But a close under $9,420 would be bearish
Ultimately bearish to $7,500
“Price still needs to break above $10,830+ and close for higher-high Close under the previous daily support ($9,420s) would be bearish On higher time frames, price is in a potentially large range Hammer reversal candle is bullish but I’m neutral at the moment,” he said.
A new report from Goldman Sachs-backed crypto trading giant Circle says Bitcoin appears to be entering its third long-term market cycle, one that will be buoyed by geopolitical uncertainty and a greater level of institutional involvement.
Circle’s extensive “Crypto Retrospective” report analyzes developments in the space across the first half of 2019.
At the time of writing, things were already starting to turn south again as the bears ramp up the pressure. Long wicks have extended hourly candles down towards $9,000 but so far Bitcoin has yet to dip below that. Crypto trader ‘DonAlt’ expects the pullback to start to bottom out here, which is around 32 percent down from 2019 high. Others are not so confident however with falls back into the $8,000 price region being predicted by a few. Trader ‘Bleeding Crypto’ targeted $8,800 as the next support area.
‘암호화폐 대장주’ 비트코인이 9600달러서 제자리걸음하고 있다. 뉴욕 검찰과 테더 간 법적 심리, 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의, 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 기준금리 인하 여부 등이 비트코인 가격 변수로 꼽힌다. 암호화폐 시황분석 사이트 코인마켓캡에 따르면 29일 오전 11시40분 기준 비트코인 가격은 전날 동시 대비 1.65% 오른 9646달러였다. 거래금액은 145억 달러로 전날(154억 달러)보다 줄었다. 28일(현지시간) 투자 분석 사이트 FX스트리트는 “비트코인 지지선이 9500달러 대에 형성됐다”며 “그 다음 지지선은 9300달러로 비트코인이 반등할 경우 9900달러가 주요 저항선으로 작용한다”고 분석했다.